The Japan Meteorological Corporation published its first 2026 autumn-colour forecast on 2 September, and the headline for the trade is simple: the colour is late almost everywhere, in some places by more than a week. The number that matters most is Kyoto — peak red maple is forecast for 11 December, not the late-November date most programmes are built around. Agents selling a "Kyoto in the autumn colour" trip for the third week of November are, on this forecast, selling a trip that arrives before the show starts.
The forecast, by city
Peak red maple (momiji), on the 2 September forecast:
- Sapporo — 7 November, about eleven days later than average
- Nagano — 21 November
- Hiroshima — 28 November
- Tokyo — 29 November, broadly on the seasonal average
- Kanazawa — 30 November
- Nagoya — 2 December
- Osaka — 4 December
- Fukuoka — 7 December
- Kagoshima — 10 December
- Kyoto — 11 December
Peak yellow ginkgo (ichō) runs earlier and tighter, which is the part most itineraries miss:
- Sapporo 6 November · Kanazawa 10 November · Nagano 13 November · Nagoya 17 November · Hiroshima 20 November · Osaka 24 November · Tokyo 26 November · Kyoto, Fukuoka and Kagoshima 27 November
What a late season actually does to a programme
- The classic mid-November Kansai trip is now mistimed. On these dates, a Kyoto arrival on 20 November meets green-to-turning maples, not peak. The same trip ten days later meets the real thing — and, awkwardly, the domestic crowds that follow it.
- Ginkgo and momiji have separated. In Kyoto the yellow peaks around 27 November and the red around 11 December — a fortnight apart. A single week can no longer promise both, so the brief has to choose which one the client is coming for.
- North-to-south sequencing still works, but the window moved. Sapporo on 7 November through to Kyoto in December is a coherent five-week run; it simply starts and ends later than the 2025 shape.
- December inventory was not priced as peak season. Kyoto hotels sold the first half of December as shoulder season. If the colour lands then, demand follows it, and the rooms that looked comfortable in August will not be. This is exactly the case our allotments and contracting approach is for.
How we are handling it
- We re-check before we confirm. A September forecast is a first estimate; the Japan Meteorological Corporation revises through the season, and a warm October or a cold snap moves these dates. Nothing in a proposal should treat 11 December as a fact.
- City dates are not temple dates. These are city-level forecasts. Mountain temples, river valleys and the Arashiyama hills turn on their own microclimate, often days apart from the city average — which is why we route to where the colour actually is rather than to where the itinerary said it would be.
- We build flexibility into the foliage days, not the fixed ones. Rail and hotels get locked; the colour day gets alternatives at two elevations.
- We say so when a client's dates are wrong. An agent who is told in September that their November departure will miss Kyoto's peak can still move it. One who finds out on arrival cannot.
The full picture of how we sell the season sits in our autumn foliage tours guide, and the wider seasonal shape in the spring and autumn festivals calendar.
FAQ
When is the peak autumn colour in Japan in 2026? On the Japan Meteorological Corporation's 2 September forecast, peak red maple runs from Sapporo on 7 November through Tokyo on 29 November to Kyoto on 11 December. Most of the country is later than average, Sapporo by about eleven days. Forecasts are revised through the season and should be re-checked before dates are confirmed.
When do Kyoto's autumn leaves peak in 2026? Red maple is forecast for around 11 December and yellow ginkgo for around 27 November — about a fortnight apart. A mid-November Kyoto arrival is likely to be early for the maples this year.
Is the 2026 autumn season later than usual across Japan? Yes, almost everywhere, by up to about eleven days in the north. Tokyo is the closest to its seasonal average at around 29 November for red foliage.
Should a November Japan itinerary be moved this year? If the colour is the reason for the trip, often yes — or the route should change so the client meets the colour where it has actually arrived. We flag mistimed departures at quotation rather than on arrival, and build alternatives at two elevations into the foliage days.
Can the forecast be trusted this far out? It is a first estimate, not a guarantee. A warm October or an early cold snap moves these dates, and city-level figures do not describe mountain temples or river valleys. We re-check current forecasts before confirming any foliage-dependent component.
Want your November and December Japan programmes re-timed against the current forecast? Write to b2b@explera.jp, message the trade desk on WhatsApp at +66 93 656 8090, or register on the B2B portal. Proposals within 24 hours. IATA TIDS 96215733, ASTA member 900408341.
